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Today Chief Economist for the NAR, Dr. Lawrence Yun predicted in his economic 2009 update at the Rocky Mountain Regional Conference, that Las Vegas would lead the country out of the housing crisis.

     Dr. Yun attributes this recovery in Las Vegas to two events 1.The  home prices are under market and 2. The Stimulus Plan. He believes the first time home buyers tax credit up to $8,000,along with the raising of the loan limits will have a positive impact on housing market. He sees the tax credit as translating into about an additional 300,000 first time home sales nation wide. The Rocky Mountain Region has been the biggest growth region in the country and Las Vegas is at the epicenter of that growth.  

He also predicted that towards the end of the year the median price of homes will improve. Although we did see last month a drop off  in foreclosures from the 2008 4th quarter, pricing has not stabilized yet due to rising decline of foreclosures. He did bring up an interesting point that the home buyers that were sitting on the fence waiting to see what the Stimulus was going to do,  are now ready to make the move to buying a home.

The Mixed Bag news is that he sees another one and a half million job losses in the next six months but doesn’t think we’ll hit 10% unemployment and even if we did that’s still  90% of the people who can respond to incentives.  And according to the Case-Schiller Index, home prices were up 108% from 1998 to 2006 and now show a 67% increase from 1998 to 2008. The home affordability index is about the same as it was in the 1970’s with the income index up to 34% from 24% for the same time period.   

All in all, a more positive outlook for our Las Vegas Real Estate Market!